Afghanistan once again experienced a collapse in state-building in August 2021. What gives this failure an international dimension is that the Afghan government was the product of the Bonn Conference, where the United States, the European Union, and regional and neighboring countries played a direct role. The historical lesson from the Bonn Conference is that all domestic stakeholders in Afghanistan’s crisis must actively participate in any peace agreement. The absence of the Taliban at the Bonn Conference prolonged Afghanistan’s political crisis and hindered the state-building process. What can be said with certainty about the Bonn Conference is that peacebuilding cannot solely be achieved through international consensus; the involvement and agreement of all parties to the conflict play a decisive role in its success.
The outcome of the Doha Agreement between the United States and the Taliban was neither a just peace for the Afghan people nor reflective of their collective demands. Excluding the Afghan government from the Doha talks repeated the mistake of the Bonn Conference by sidelining one of Afghanistan’s key political actors. These two political missteps not only failed to build peace but also pushed Afghanistan further into crisis.
By engaging in negotiations with the Taliban in Doha, the United States indirectly granted political legitimacy to this group, raising many questions about America’s standing in the region.
The DStrategist believes that Afghanistan, as a member state of the United Nations, is currently lacks international legitimacy and political identity. This situation is not only a collective punishment for the Afghan people, who deserve a legitimate and accountable government, but it also calls into question the effectiveness of international mechanisms concerning human rights violations in Afghanistan. During its 20-year presence in Afghanistan, the United States made significant efforts to support the Afghan government, resulting in the emergence of an educated and aware generation that aspired to develop their country, despite challenges and conflicts. However, these aspirations are now unattainable. The state’s structures collapsed with the Taliban’s return to power, forcing Afghan human resources to flee.
Since August 2021, the United States’ approach toward Afghanistan has lacked a clear and defined vision. The continued absence of international legitimacy and political identity in Afghanistan, coupled with regional countries’ accommodation of the Taliban’s policies, raises many questions about America’s influence on the global stage. The expectation of the Afghan people, particularly intellectuals and political activists, is for the new U.S. administration to present a clear stance on Afghanistan’s ruling group.
Afghanistan’s crisis has never been an isolated internal matter; it has profound regional roots. The Taliban’s rise to power is not merely a domestic political event but serves as inspiration for other extremist groups to continue their battles against legitimate governments in poor and vulnerable countries. The emergence of any armed group with an extremist ideology disrupts the political order in neighbouring countries and negatively affects global security and economy, leading to mass migrations, increased drug production and trafficking, human smuggling, arms trade, and terrorist attacks. The absence of the United States and the lack of a legitimate government in Afghanistan have created a significant security vacuum in the region, which extremist groups and their state sponsors are striving to fill.
The September 11 terrorist attacks demonstrated the extent to which the U.S. government’s policy of sidelining could enable extremist groups to organize devastating attacks. Currently, the threat of any terrorist attack coordinated by groups based in Afghanistan remains conceivable.
Many Afghan and American people view the Taliban as an extremist group with regressive ideologies that pose challenges to modernization and human rights. However, the important thing is that the new U.S. administration should evaluate the Taliban by their actions not by their words.
The fundamental question for both the Afghan and American people is: Who will be held accountable for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent Afghan citizens and thousands of American and NATO soldiers? And what has been achieved from all this bloodshed?
Based on its deep understanding of Afghanistan’s societal layers, DStrategist believes that the new U.S. administration must realize that neither the Taliban are capable of cooperation nor do the groups conducting scattered guerrilla attacks against the Taliban have a solid social base.
What complicates Afghanistan’s situation further is the United States’ passive approach, which emboldens Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries. Both the Taliban and their armed opposition groups receive support from these neighbouring and regional states, highlighting the urgent need for a clear stance by the U.S. administration on Afghanistan.
The new U.S. administration must clarify any assistance provided to the Taliban, most importantly, it should ensure that Afghanistan’s frozen financial assets and commercial properties in the U.S. are not handed over to the Taliban under any circumstances. These resources should only be accessible to a legitimate Afghan government.
As an academic institution comprised of prominent Afghan experts with deep insights into Afghanistan’s societal structure, DStrategist is closely monitoring the situation in Afghanistan. The institution stands ready to cooperate with the new U.S. administration by providing analyses and advice on topics such as the Taliban’s political structure, internal divisions, their interactions with Iran and China, human rights violations by the Taliban, and other related issues. DStrategist firmly believes that political pressure, guided by a clear roadmap, can effectively help change Afghanistan’s current trajectory. Afghanistan’s history over the past half-century has shown that military interventions by foreign powers not only fail to achieve their objectives but also generate larger crises.
From 2001 to 2021, U.S. policy toward Afghanistan lacked a strategic vision concerning state-building, countering terrorist activities originating from Pakistan, and, ultimately, the unilateral decision to enter peace talks in Doha. This approach reflects the insufficient understanding of U.S. policymakers regarding the region’s realities. The new U.S. administration must abandon its passive stance toward the Taliban and use political pressure tools to revise previous policies and address the current crisis. The Taliban must be held accountable to the international community, and the United States has substantial political leverage to delegitimize extremist elements and corrupt factions within both the Taliban and the previous government.
The absence of responsible governance anywhere in the world perpetuates conflicts and political instability, particularly when an ideological and extremist group gains access to resources and foreign support. The United States must clarify its financial aid to the Taliban. Are the weekly cash transfers funded by U.S. resources, or are they drawn from Afghanistan’s foreign reserves or commercial assets? Understanding this and ensuring transparency is critical for both the American and Afghan people, as it can dispel doubts and speculations.
DStrategist is committed to analysing the 20 years of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, highlighting the opportunities and challenges, and offering recommendations rooted in ground realities and actionable strategies for the future.
Sincerely,
The Political Affairs Team
DStrategist